WebbIn Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded …
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
He has published over 200 articles in peer-reviewed journals and has edited or written ten books. Tetlock's research program over the last four decades has explored five themes: 1. the concept of good judgment (with special emphasis on the usefulness of forecasting tournaments in assessing one key component of good judgment: accuracy); 2. the impact of accountability on judgment and choice; The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania. The project began as a participant in the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program of the Intelligence … income of youtube in india
Reciprocal Scoring: A Method for Forecasting Unanswerable Questions …
WebbExpert Political Judgement Philip Tetlock Expert Political Judgment This 2007 book made a splash when it was released because it tested the ability of experts to predict … Webb20 aug. 2024 · Foxes, on the other hand are skeptical about grand theories, diffident in their forecasts, and ready to adjust their ideas based on actual events. The aggregate success rate of Foxes is significantly greater, Tetlock found, especially in short-term forecasts. And Hedgehogs routinely fare worse than Foxes, especially in long-term forecasts. Webb29 aug. 2024 · Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions... income of twitter users